I understand the historical significance since the nationalists retreated to Taiwan at the end of the Chinese Civil War.
Back then, and for perhaps the middle part of the 20th century, there was a threat of a government in exile claiming mainland China. Historically, then, there was your impetus for invasion.
However, China has since grown significantly, and Taiwan no longer claims to be the government of mainland China, so that reason goes away.
Another reason people give: control the supply of chips. Yet, wouldn’t the Fabs, given their sensitive nature, be likely to be significantly destroyed in the process of an invasion?
Even still, China now has its own academia and engineering, and is larger than Taiwan. Hence, even without the corporate espionage mainland China is known for, wouldn’t investing in their burgeoning semiconductor industry make more sense, rather than spending that money on war?
People mention that taking Taiwan would be a breakout from the “containment” imposed by the ring of U.S. allies in the region.
Yet while taking Taiwan would mean access to deep-water ports, it’s not as though Taiwan would ever pose a threat to Chinese power projection—their stance is wholly defensive. If China decided to pull an “America” and send a carrier to the Middle East or something, no one would stop them and risk a war.
So what is it then? Is it just for national pride and glory? Is it to create a legacy for their leadership? The gamble just doesn’t really seem worth it.
Anyway, appreciate your opinions thanks!
From China’s geopolitical standpoint:
Taiwan lies between China and the Pacific Ocean.
Taiwan is part of the First Island Chain (which includes Japan, Taiwan, Philippines) — many of these are U.S.-aligned or host U.S. bases.
Control over Taiwan would:
Give China greater military and surveillance reach into the Pacific.
Potentially allow it to break out of U.S.-aligned containment.
Give it more control over critical sea lanes and access to deeper waters (vital for its navy).
However, China has since grown significantly, and Taiwan no longer claims to be the government of mainland China, so that reason goes away.
The thing that we call “Taiwan” is an island, not a country, the country is “Republic of China” (ROC). We call it mostly Taiwan, because there is the People’s Republic of China (PRC) which is the mainland China. So you still have 2 countries, next to each other, both claiming to have the name “China”.
You claim the name, you claim the country.
In 100 years, long after the United States has broken into Baltic states, there will be a reunification movement and people will ask “why do they want to invade Texas?”. There will be politicians who’s whole political careers will be built on the promise they can make the United States one country again. Understand this and you will understand China and Taiwan.
I get that however Taiwan the island wasn’t even part of China at the time that the ROC retreated/invaded it. So it would be sorta like Texas fleeing to Mexico then the US wanting to invade Mexico “to make the US into one country again”.
That’s a pretty good article explaining it. The funny thing is that the US media is always framing China as the aggressor. But one look at that map, like with your real eyes, not the crazy eyes, should show you the US is way out there on someone else’s doorstep and who the aggressor is. That’s just geography.
Personally I don’t think China is going to invade Taiwan unless things escalate further. For example, the Russian perspective on the Ukraine is that the US supported the regime change through the NED, helped far right elements overthrow the democratically elected regime and then supported their stance to ban Russian language, oppress Russian speaking populations in Ukraine and supplied them with massive amounts of arms and intelligence. All of this is true historical fact. And in that situation even the chief of NATO Stoltenberg publicly said that Russia launched a “preemptive war” in response to this quasi-NATO membership right on their doorstep. If the US does the same with Taiwan, China might invade. That particular gabit is rather unlikely to succeed in Taiwan though, and Taiwan is far less dangerous to China than a hostile well supplied Ukraine is to Russia (only like 500 miles from Moskow). The smart play for China if that happens is to play rope-a-dope until the US gets tired. Kinda what Iran is doing about the numerous provocations and acts of war against them.
Classic .ml!
It’s a staging area for the US that’s very close to China, so there’s that reason strategically. But really, there’s not a lot of reason to which is why they haven’t done so already. China is, as far as I’m aware, perfectly happy with the traditional US approach towards Taiwan, a policy of “strategic ambiguity” that doesn’t officially recognize Taiwan as independent (while informally supporting them) and which has kept the peace for many decades. China does not gain much from provoking a military confrontation with the US, as things stand, China is winning the peace through economic development while the US is going all in on the military. By maintaining the status quo, China can leave the issue open and kick the can down the road, maintaining the possibility that someday in the future they may be in a strong enough position to press the issue.
Even still, China now has its own academia and engineering, and is larger than Taiwan. Hence, even without the corporate espionage mainland China is known for, wouldn’t investing in their burgeoning semiconductor industry make more sense, rather than spending that money on war?
That’s exactly what they’ve been doing. That article mentions that they’ve actually recruited 3000 engineers from Taiwan’s chip industry to help develop their own chips.
Yet while taking Taiwan would mean access to deep-water ports, it’s not as though Taiwan would ever pose a threat to Chinese power projection—their stance is wholly defensive. If China decided to pull an “America” and send a carrier to the Middle East or something, no one would stop them and risk a war.
Taiwan’s stance is defensive, but the same isn’t necessarily true of the US, which operates in Taiwan. The US has recently started throwing around rhetoric and shifting spending focuses towards treating a hot war with China as a serious possibility, insane as it may be. This is (hopefully) just bluster to justify defense spending, but I’m not at all convinced that if China sent a carrier to the Middle East, the US would not retaliate. If anything, they’re looking for a reason.
Stopping american influence
The gamble just doesn’t really seem worth it.
China is not invading Taiwan. However if it comes to a war with the US, then it really has to take out Taiwan. It is just too close to the mainland, allowing for easy bombing and missile attacks, while als being able to cut off shipping from the mainland. Obviously the US likes that a lot, as it makes war against the US much more costly for China.
At the same time leaders often make horrible decisions. Just look at the US invading Iraq and Afghanistan or Russia invading Ukraine. Clearly not good wars for the countries invading, but they still did it.
china is a bit like Yugoslavia before the end: lots of different ethnicities being forced to be together. letting a country made up of Chinese people exist in parallel to china keeps a flame of hope alight for those 51 non-Han Chinese ethnicities that were forced to be part of continental china. and China has struggled immensely with multitudes of local kingdoms and warlords throughout its history so it is afraid as its people are very aware of this past through historical dramas
Oh boy! i can imagine what are your opinions on “lots of ethnicities forced to be together”
Well not in the melting pot way— but the you’re Han Chinese now way
The lithography machines could easily be reverse engineered… Mechanically… Only to find out just how complex the rest of the system is just to get it to even work making crap level chips much less anything respectable near the 3nm level. That would be hilarious. Like when the US left a bunch of helicopters and one of the revel factions got a hold of them…yey! We got the helicopters! Only to find out the helicopters aren’t the thing that holds power. Barking up the wrong tree.
Even if taiwans technology manufacturing gets destroyed in the invasion, it’s still major part of western world’s component infrastructure. They can also just rebuild. China gaining control over that or even just denying it to west would make china internationally more powerful no matter how it goes.
Most likely that isnt the only reason they want taiwan, but i dont believe it isnt one of them.
One, it completes one of their long standing policy of “one China”. They still view Taiwan as a rogue rebellion state to bring back into the fold, not an independent country to conquer.
Two, it would cripple a lot of the west’s high end silicon industry. TSMC is the only one that can make the worlds most advanced nodes, as well as Taiwan holds chip packaging infrastructure that any other nodes require on to be useful.
To that end it is a geopolitical chip that China can use to pressure the west, but likely will never act upon until a real hot war breaks out.
They still view Taiwan as a rogue rebellion state to bring back into the fold, not an independent country to conquer.
I think this should never be mentioned without also pointing out that the island of Taiwan has never been a part of China.
The PLA has never stepped foot on the island of Taiwan, correct.
But Qing Dynasty has ruled Taiwan, and now the Republic of China is currently on Taiwan
In what way…? Taiwan has been a part of all Chinese states for centuries.
Literally since before the US was even a thing… so yes, all, for centuries.
So? Before Qing dynasty taiwan was not part of china and became part through conquests. Taiwan has the right to be a separate entity what they dfon’t have right to is to becone the usa puppet and threten china security and the interests that they have right to
Taiwan has been a part of China for far longer than the US has existed. Or that Hawaii has been part of the US. And there’s pretty good support for independence in Hawaii…
It doesn’t matter. Polities reunify and separate all the time in history. The idea that a polity once becoming part of another can’t separate again is so dumb
So if a rebel army lost a civil war in the US, fled to Hawaii, set up a military dictatorship that exploits and genocides native Hawaiians, we should all just accept that as cool and fine? As long as 50 years have passed and the only people left are the children of the rebels and military dictators who support their “state”?
Edit: also while being supported by China and Russia and all the while having war games where they invade the US from Hawaii 😂
What are you refering too?
It would cripple it now but TSMC has started building Fabs in North America— but it would certainly cripple its output in the short term— then again, the U.S governments current incompetence not withstanding, you would think that if that ever happened the U.S would be able to emergency build Fabs within a few (2-4?) years if necessary.
From what I know, it’s not that simple. Those are very complex and delicate processes, so the 2 to 4 years timeline sounds quite optimistic.
Also, it’s entirely possible TSMC doesn’t want to transfer the entirety of its knowledge to the US, as it basically guarantees the US would intervene in the case of an invasion to protect the supply of advanced chips.
The fabs themselves aren’t the only limiting factor on modern lithography, skill is the bigger one; this stuff is probably more complicated than rocket science. We US engineers dont have the skills to run a competitive fab in the US, that takes many years of losing money to be developed. Intel has bigger better EUV machines than TSMC but they just cant compete and intel keeps laying off their engineers constantly which is a very bad signal.
Also, last time I was reading on the topic TSMC doesn’t plan to produce advanced chips on their US fabs to gatekeep their knowledge.
You are approaching this from the perspective of a rational peaceful person from the west, where usually the economy is number one in everything.
Xi has achieved unrivaled rule over the party. He has successfully established a police state that ensures that any domestic dissent is immediately crushed with brutal efficiency. He has subjugated the provinces that dared to think about self rule and cultural differences, and is in the process of ethnic cleansing without any significant opposition or consequences. He has gained colonial influence all over Africa through economic means. He has taken over Hong Kong. He has significantly modernized and expanded the military, including nuclear weapons. He had made China into a global economic superpower, which other countries, including rivals, depend on for a significant amount of manufactured goods and resources.
So what is left for him? Surely he is not a man who can be content with what he has.
The obvious next step is to make China into a military superpower. For that you need to exert power abroad. What better place to begin with than that small island just off your coast that has been a challenge to Chinese supremacy for decades?
Of course, Taiwan is kind of protected by the US, the dominant superpower of the time. But they are struggling, looking weak. If China manages to take Taiwan, they will not only have removed that thorn in their side, they will also have punched the biggest, meanest kid on the block on the nose and gotten away with it.
Of course, Taiwan is kind of protected by the US, the dominant superpower of the time. But they are struggling, looking weak.
Keep in mind that China is struggling as well. Their debt problems are several times worse than the US, so they could suffer a major recession within the next few years if a significant disruption like war happens.
Same thing they gained from invading Hong Kong, they think it belongs to them.
Or as one of my old friends told me while playing Final Fantasy 12; the only legitimate reason to wage war against another country - land.
Hong Kong is already part of the Chinese mainland and was already kinda part of China, but Taiwan is a geographically strategic location that puts both Koreas, the Philippines, & Japan in a tougher position. Even without war it would make trade and travel in the Pacific much harder.
They didn’t invade Hong Kong, it was given back to China from the British after the 99 year lease expired. The violence in Hong Kong was to destroy the concept of democracy among the citizens there.
Lots of good points, but one aspect that people haven’t mentioned yet is that Taiwan is part of the “first island chain”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Island_chain_strategy
If the PRC conquers Taiwan, then it makes it much harder for the west to blockade the PRC in future conflicts.
Though technically, it is much more important to control the strait of Malacca than Taiwan.
The island chain strategy is the exact reason why China desires Taiwan. If anything, it’s a desire not to be blockaded.
It’s also the reason why China has been trying to dominate the South China Sea because that’s its only outlet to open seas.
Like I said, the messaging around the PRC’s imperialistic ambitions in Taiwan goes far beyond the concern around blockades. It’s just interesting from a military/strategic perspective.
Worth noting that even Russia has not been blockaded after it’s imperialistic annexation of Ukraine.
Land and the sea surrounding Taiwan, which comes with resource that they can exploit, and controling people that they claim is theirs. It’s the same reason why europe sail across the sea to colonize others land, and why US doesn’t let Puerto Rico become independent. China never acknowledged that Taiwan is an independent country, they always believe that Taiwan is their territory. It’s imperialism.
Puerto Rico doesn’t want to be independent. They regularly have polls on this. About half want to be a state. About half want to keep the status quo. A small fraction favor independence. And it is obvious why - despite all the economic restrictions and lack of representation, the average Puerto Rican is far better off economically with a US passport. Just look at comparable Caribbean island nations - an independent Puerto Rico would have little going for it other than as a stopover for shipping boats and cruise ships. As part of the US, they draw an outsized portion of the Caribbean tourism market, can easily trade with US companies without the impediments of international borders, and can dream that their kids can go to the mainland and study in some of the best universities in the world.
That’s true, my bad. I meant to draw comparison on why US still have Puerto Rico as a territory but without any political representation
Doesn’t both Taiwan and China both officially recognize all of China and Taiwan as their own territory?
Maybe, but when is the last time you heard taiwan claiming china is their territory rather than talking about taiwan independent (台独)?
Yes and according to the CCP if Taiwan ever changes that it will trigger military action.
Huh I guess I might have been weong— Taiwan technically does claim the mainland? But also not its governance?
“The 1991 constitutional amendments and the 1992 Cross-Strait Relations Act marked a pivotal shift, as the ROC ceased actively claiming governance over the mainland, stopped treating the PRC as a rebellious group, and started treating it in practise, as an equal political entity effectively governing mainland China from ROC’s perspective, though the ROC constitution still technically includes the mainland as ROC territory.”
Yeah it’s one of those technically true things that gets trotted out a lot to paint a “both sides” type picture. Not sure if that was the other commenters intent or not, but when stated without context it often seems like that’s the intent.
I think the key word is “practical”. Both the mainland and Taiwanese governments are not stupid, they know they have to acknowledge the status quo for day to day business like customs and immigration.
stopped treating the PRC as a rebellious group
That was to lift martial law.
