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Cake day: July 4th, 2023

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  • My point is that there are no “good guys” and “bad guys”. There are only differing levels of power. The US has been doing a lot worse for a lot longer. It’s just that past administrations were diplomatic about their use of power. This administration, being a reality TV star, is just choosing to be loud about it.

    America under Biden supplied 80% of the bombs that Israel dropped on Gazan civilians. Obama led the illegal attack on Libya and killed Gaddafi and doomed Libya to anarchy and chaos. Bush destroyed Iraq and doomed them to anarchy and chaos- creating ISIS. I could go on and on.

    Most American citizens (just like the citizens of virtually every country in the world) are not really concerned with geopolitics. They have to pay their rent, they’re gonna be late for work, their kid is failing a class, their girlfriend is pissed because they don’t go out enough, they’re tired from work, they’re working hard for that promotion, they’re worried about rent increases, etc.

    So to answer your question. No, Americans don’t really care. And even if they care, they’re forced to worry about more pressing individual matters. Basically the same thing that happened in your home country in the 1930s.


  • A superpower by definition cannot really be a rogue state. A “rogue state” is a political label applied by dominant powers to states that defy the international order. For example Iran or North Korea are considered rogue states because they defy the international order. What is “the international order”?

    Well, it’s the combination post-WW2 institutions created by none other than the US. The UN, IMF, NATO, etc. They set the norms of “legitimate” behavior. When the US participates in military interventions, economic sanctions, and other aggressive actions it’s framed as upholding “rules-based order” whereas identical actions by weaker states get them condemned with the label as “rogue states”.

    To call the US a rogue state is to misunderstand power. Hegemony is the ability to define reality, not just defy it. In this way, the US has always been a rogue state in the sense that it does whatever it wants regardless of the international norms. I mean, just look at the mid 1900s and its actions in Latin America. It was involved in about a dozen states toppling governments and supporting military dictatorships- including sponsoring the genocide of natives in Guatemala.


  • I think the question already contains a sort of ideological trap: it assumes that a specific company can be uniquely evil, as if morality were some trait that varies between company to company.

    I’m sure everyone’s heard this before:

    There is no ethical consumption under capitalism.

    It’s not just a slogan. It gives us insight into the very structure of capitalism. That doesn’t mean every individual act is equally bad, but the system demands a sort of baseline complicity.

    CEOs and executives are legally required to maximize shareholder profits. Not just encouraged— legally obligated. So when Coca-Cola, for example, hires paramilitary death squads to kill labor leaders in Colombia, it’s not because it is uniquely monstrous. Replace Coca-Cola with Pepsi, or Nestle, or Amazon, or Raytheon… whatever. The logic of the system would produce the same result. If I gave the same chess position to 30 different Grandmasters… if there is a best move they will all see it and choose that best move.

    Think of an ant colony. An ant colony doesn’t decide to be cruel; it expands, consumes, protects its territory, destroys threats. Is it evil when some colony wipes out another for resources? A colony committing what we could term ant genocide? No it’s not. The colony is simply acting in its nature. Much like a slime mold would expand in a radius looking for food in a petri dish.

    Large corporations are like ant colonies. Complex emergent behavior resulting from a large number of individual units acting by a set of rules. The intelligence or perspective of the individual does not actually matter for the organism as a whole. As long as the individual units follow a set of rules it creates a sort of “hive-mind” pseudo-intelligence that acts in its own interests and has an almost Darwinist natural selection process.

    So this is all to say that I reject the question. I don’t believe in uniquely evil companies. The horror is precisely that they’re all, in a sense, innocent. They act not out of hatred or sadism or cruelty, but because the system itself has carved out the pathways where the ball inevitably rolls down the hill following the path of least resistance.



  • “I no longer believe that freedom and democracy are compatible.”

    https://www.cato-unbound.org/2009/04/13/peter-thiel/education-libertarian/

    Peter Thiel is the financier behind JD Vance and one of the co-founders of PayPal- later on with Elon Musk. They’re part of the same group of people, along with various other Silicon Valley tech executives, who subscribe to what has been called the “Dark Enlightenment” philosophy

    JD Vance, for example, has openly expressed his support for Nick Land and cited him as a major influence.

    Both Yarvin and Land believe that gradual, incremental reforms to democracy will not save Western society; instead, a “hard reset” or “reboot” is necessary. To that end, Yarvin has coined the acronym “RAGE” – Retire All Government Employees – as a crucial step toward that goal.

    Does that sound familiar?

    Yarvin advocates for an entirely new system of government – what he calls “neocameralism.” He advocates for a centrally managed economy led by a monarch – modeled after a corporate CEO – who wouldn’t need to adhere to plodding liberal-democratic procedures. Yarvin has written approvingly of the late Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping for his pragmatic and market-oriented authoritarianism.

    They’re essentially trying to reshape the government to function more like a corporation. Something akin to the Chinese or Singapore method of governance. Democracy is not compatible. What’s interesting is that this isn’t happening in secret. They’re out in the open about it.

    I’m guessing you refuse to see what’s in front of your nose out of fear, which is why you keep saying everyone else is afraid. Me personally, I’m not afraid at all. I’d say I’m more morbidly curious to see how it all ends up. I’m fairly privileged and I’ll be fine no matter what. As long as you shut up and do your job most people will be fine. Just don’t be an immigrant or openly anti-Israel

    But it’s happening. We’re witnessing a coup right in front of our eyes. They are purging the federal government and Trump has started to ignore court orders- dipping his toes in the water. There’s a lot more to this if you’re interested. There’s many articles out there and you can even read stuff by Vance, Thiel, Yarvin, Land, etc. They’re not shy




  • we’re watching an unprecedented purge in only a couple months of an administration. led by people who have openly admitted they want to destroy American democracy and institute a dictatorship.

    me personally I think Trump already crossed the Rubicon. but in the very near future there will be an order by the Supreme Court for Trump to stop doing something. He won’t stop doing it. And then it will be abundantly clear to everyone we’re in a new stage of US history



  • this was actually a key part of Hitler’s strategy. early on in the Nazi meetings they would try to pin down and give an exact agenda and set of policies.

    he would yell at everyone that they’re missing the point. it’s more about the vibe than the logic. being vague and ambiguous keeps your options open.

    “It is not truth that matters, but victory.” Adolph

    By refusing precise definitions, you are able to retroactively decide what the ideology “always meant”. so when it’s convenient to hate against health insurance CEOs you are “against the swamp”. when it’s convenient to dismantle the government you are “against the swamp”

    it can mean whatever you want it to. similar with the “enemies of the state”

    nazis would use the word marxists or “degenerates” very loosely. makes it very easy to shift blame to a specific target or another when necessary

    berlin’s degeneracy is because of gays, somewhere else it may be gypsies, another it’s the jews, etc.

    today we see phrases like “radical leftists” “cultural marxists” “woke ideology” etc

    a federal judge blocked some of Trump’s orders (Trump ignored it of course) and what does he call him? a radical left judge. something that couldn’t be further from the truth- radical left would imply some type of communist or socialist. but it doesn’t really matter because the term is vague enough it can work


  • you don’t just become friends with people to become friends. there needs to be some glue that brings you two together.

    so for example back when you were in primary school, you had that glue- you took the same class as someone or rode home in the same bus, etc.

    as an adult, if you want to make friends, you need to find some glue. it could be working together, or playing dungeons and dragons, or a deep appreciation of black and white cinema. who knows

    so i will suggest one thing and it will only really work if you live in Florida. go to kava bars. just go with your laptop and hang out there drinking kava and doing your own thing. go every once in a while and you will meet people and make friends. it’s one of the few modern “3rd place” locations.



  • i say be polite. you don’t have to be super friendly or anything

    being a “homewrecker” is bad, but sometimes there’s more context you don’t know about. i tend to give people the benefit of doubt and give them an opportunity to show who they are before I make assumptions.

    i do this because in the past i have judged too quickly and been wrong about people- in both directions


  • If a new World War was coming, we would definitely want to be closer with our border countries than give our foreign enemies a chance

    think of it this way. let’s say WW3 kicks off with China tomorrow. Will Canada or Mexico suddenly ally with China?

    Reality is that Canada and Mexico are totally dependent on US trade. It really doesn’t matter if you piss them off they’re gonna be forced to deal with you anyway.

    80% of Mexican exports are to the US. 30% of their GDP is based on American trade. If US exports stopped tomorrow, Mexican economy would immediately enter a deep depression. They have no choice but to play nice, even with 25% tariffs.

    Canada is similarly stuck. 75% of exports are to the US. 50% of their imports are from the US. 20% of their GDP is based on American trade.

    If you took both Canadian and Mexican trade combined and compared it to the US economy, though, it wouldn’t even reach 5%. If trade with both of these countries were to stop tomorrow, America will suffer- but growth may slow by 0.5% or 1%. Both Canada and Mexico would see a depression.

    America is like the sun in the solar system. Canada and Mexico have no choice but to fall into orbit around it. The total weight of the economic power is hard to understate.

    Do you see why Trump feels like he has the power to do this? This is the point I was trying to make above. Historically US presidents have been more diplomatic and subtle about how to abuse the leverage that America has by the nature of being a superpower. Trump isn’t fundamentally different except he’s exploiting this leverage loudly and in an ugly and aggressive way.

    In the past, presidents would play nice. Pretend like there was sovereignty and diplomacy, etc. But when Bill Clinton signed NAFTA… it was for the same reason. To dominate the economies of both Canada and Mexico. The difference is the rhetoric sounds much nicer.

    After NAFTA was signed, subsidized US corn flooded the Mexican market, totally bankrupting millions of Mexican farmers. Wages in Mexico stagnated for decades because US needed cheap labor to build cars. In Canada, they became more and more reliant on exporting natural resources to the US.

    We always need to remember US is an imperialist power. This is what empires do.

    As for the upcoming war, I think it’s only a matter of time. But we’re talking a time scale of 5-10 years. We’re preparing for the future showdown. There will be one or two more flashpoints before the main war. Ukraine was one, Israel is another.

    If we had to make an analogy with WW2, I’d say we’re roughly in mid ~1930s. Our Spanish Civil War is the Ukrainian war. Our Italian invasion of Ethiopia is the Israeli conflict. (Gaza, Israeli invasion of Syria, war with Lebanon, Iran, etc)


  • Anyone who’s even remotely qualified to lead the military is being replaced with sycophants

    it’s a purge. we’re watching our own version of what Saddam Hussein did when he took power. it definitely weakens the country overall but it strengthens the hold on power for the executive.

    as for the military, we’ve been spending more than like the next 8 countries combined for decades. it’s hard to understate the relative power of the US military. there are hundreds of military bases all over the world.

    even a weakened superpower is still a superpower


  • If no enemies exist, they are created.

    i don’t disagree. that’s why the rhetoric. but I would disconnect the rhetoric from the policy. trump says one thing and does another. he wants to deport everyone but at the rate he’s going we won’t even see a 10% reduction in the illegal immigrant population. mouth says one thing, hand does another

    notice how tariffs were a trend that started a decade ago. Trump placed tariffs on China on his first term and then Biden increased the number of tariffs. the ban on Tiktok was a bipartisan effort- it’s in the interest of US foreign policy. obviously tariffs on Canada and Mexico are insane and probably wouldn’t have happened without Trump… but more tariffs were a definite part of the future regardless who won in 2024

    Trump isn’t doing this because he’s some brilliant strategist

    couple of things. first, i wouldn’t underestimate trump. he successfully hijacked the Republican party which is a party full of wealthy and powerful people who did everything in their power to try and stop him

    second, the people around Trump are very principled ideologues (ie people like Peter Thiel and the dark enlightenment ideology they’re enamored in)

    these people are educated, intelligent, and dedicated to their cause. they also have near-limitless money and now they have the control of the federal government of the strongest country in the world- a country that has an executive branch that has gotten progressively more powerful.

    they have a vision and they planned for this and they are enacting it. this is not a spontaneous thing. they view a future where there is a showdown with China and tariffs play into that future



  • because there’s a war coming soon that will destroy most global trade. trump wants the US in a better position in that near future by having more factories and such inside of the US.

    in a peaceful world, you allow free trade and specialization to do its thing and everybody gets richer. you farm bananas, i farm apples, and we trade. we create value out of thin air, it’s an amazing thing.

    but in a world where superpowers are at war and the world splinters into factions, half of the global economy will be cut off from the other half. therefore it’ll be a huge liability if we for example depend on Taiwan for 90% of our computer chips when China can blockade Taiwan and we cannot reliably break that blockade. that’s one industry… now imagine the thousands of other products we need for a modern economy. it would cause massive economic shockwaves.

    so this tariff thing is accepting that this will happen in the near future and preparing for it, slowly weaning off the economy from that connection to the rest of the world. so when it does come, it doesn’t hurt as bad.

    it doesn’t really matter if you piss off your allies. since you’re the biggest military power they are going to have to rely on you anyway. you have leverage over them. the difference is that Trump is a reality TV star and so he is loudly exploiting this leverage whereas most past leaders would be more subtle and diplomatic about it.

    Canada, Mexico, Germany, Japan, etc aren’t really allies. Being someone’s ally implies there’s a sort of equal footing. When someone has no choice but to bend to your will, is that a voluntary relationship? the US essentially wrote Japan’s constitution and they told the Germans what to write down for theirs. Canada and Mexico are heavily dependent on US trade- US growth might slow a half percent or two whereas Mexico and Canada are liable to fall into a recession because of these tariffs.

    it isn’t equal footing. it’s a david v goliath situation

    to give a recent example, Ukraine. Ukraine in 2014 had the Euromaidan coup and the president had to flee the country. The new government that was quickly appointed without an election realized one thing very quickly- Russia was about to invade them. they had only one option in terms of getting military aid and that was the US. so immediately, the same day that the government was appointed, they started cooperating with the US. a few days after that, little green men showed up in Donbas and the Russian army waltzed into Crimea

    so you can say they “allied” with the US but a more honest way to say it is that they were desperately pushed into America’s orbit. and the US ultimately doesn’t care about a country like Ukraine. people are starting to see it more clearly today because of Trump, but I honestly don’t think the situation would have been meaningfully different with Biden or Kamala. The primary difference would have been rhetoric. Instead of calling Zelensky a dictator, we would have just dragged our feet with military aid instead, like what has been happening the last year or so

    tldr: the US is a imperialist superpower and this is what they do.


  • i don’t think it’s so simple as they worship power. i think there’s a very strong inbuilt desire to belong to an “in-group” when you feel insecure and vulnerable

    and if unchecked neoliberal capitalism has done anything over the last half century, it’s made average americans feel insecure. financially and emotionally

    so sort of the same reason there’s race-based prison gangs is the same reason fascism tends to flare up when the system is going through severe stress. just like when your immune system is weak and the herpes virus manages to break out. we always have fascism possible yet most of the time the immune system is strong enough.

    2008 + covid + ukraine + more have left us vulnerable


  • I think his is absolutely the right course of action. We as humans have a weird psyche and we sometimes externalize internal issues and project them outwards either onto ideas or people.

    So for example, incels have serious issues with self-worth and they externalize those issues into hatred of women and society at large for their position in life. They feel, perhaps, they are not the man they feel like they should be- strong, handsome, wealthy, etc. And so they take blame at external circumstances in order to lessen the cognitive dissonance that if they are lonely and undesired- it’s almost always due to their own decision making and perspective on life.

    So for example a young male teen may feel all sorts of negative emotions and decide that gender dysphoria must be the diagnosis- when maybe he’s just a little feminine and attracted to men. But if they start to identify with the trans label prematurely, they could end up doing unnecessary damage to themselves and their development.

    I wholeheartedly and unapologetically support trans people and in my opinion if transitioning is determined the most effective treatment to gender dysphoria by one or two clinical physicians, I would absolutely support my kid transitioning. Trans kids have a very high rate of suicide so this is actually a very serious life and death diagnosis. It’s more dangerous statistically than some types of cancer. And if my kid had cancer, I would want to obviously look at all possible treatments plans we could take.

    But just like the dad, I would start with regular therapy and work our way up. See what else is going on. I would also spend time with my kid and really try to get a sense for what’s troubling them. I don’t think there is a substitute for a parent who cares.

    Anyhow, interesting post, thanks for sharing this intimate exchange. It’s a reminder that we are all humans and even those who we may label as “conservative” cannot be condensed down to one statement. This is one of the reasons, for example, I love Florida even though it’s a red state. I’m the furthest thing from right wing, but you’ll find that many Latinos who identify as right-wing have many views that would be considered “progressive”.

    We’re all ultimately people who hold multitudes.