I have no idea how while Trump is a) ripping out the underpinnings of constitutional law which, in turn, is all that holds up all other laws (including transactional) in the US AND b) ripping apart the post war Western defense alliance leaving Europe and Australia completely exposed and vulnerable AND c) going to impose global reciprocal tariffs, which are going to kill trade and plunge the country and the world into the greatest economic depression (coincidentally) since the 1930’s, how the market isn’t down 75% - 90% by this point. Hopes & Dreams? Hallucinogens? Heroin?
What power on earth is allowing Hedge Funds, Banks and Small Investors the justification to keep betting on an underlying business system which is literally being pulled apart at the seams with no real hope of being functional shortly. How is this happening. It’s like I’m taking crazy pills every day. The market should look at what Trump’s already done (much less what he still promises to do) and say, whoop that’s us, we’re audi, this is insane, we can’t trade our value as a corporation any longer, we don’t know where supplies, labor, administration, distribution, sales, or any law governing any of it stands, we have to pull all our monies out, and put them someplace safe like our pockets.
What is happening to keep the market propped up, when literally everything, everywhere that it needs for stability in projected earnings is being hollowed out beneath it?
edit 2/20 : lol edit 2/21: lol
As others have said, the stock market has little to do with reality. It’s focused on money and business reports. As long as companies are showing profits, the stock market literally doesn’t care.
Something only hits it when businesses hit it. Look at today’s market. Walmart posted bad futures and the whole market recoiled (only a bit but still).
There’s also just the denial phase. Lots of people, at lots of levels, are dependent on the stock market for their own finances. Literally everyone with a 401k has an interest in the market doing well. Saying “welp, we’re fucked” is just not something that anyone wants to put towards wall street. It’s why we have market “crashes”, because people hold out until the water covers the bow of the sinking shop then they freak out and bail out at the last second.
As evidenced in The Big Short when it was very clear to banks and regulators that the whole mortgage shell game was falling apart and they all refused to act on it.
See, now I have had a few things pegged as being in the denial phase for a while. I’m in Australia, so the housing market I have had pegged to collapse, also I figured we would be heading into a recession coming on 3 years ago and changed businesses to “weather the upcoming recession”
Now while things have cooled off since then, and I still think both elements are overcooked, I obviously moved way to soon.
So my question is, how do you time the denial phase? The housing market issue has been going on for about 30 years from what I can tell (though it got more reasonable for half a minute a bit over a decade ago and then went stupid again).
In my lifetime, and I’m 40 now, I haven’t seen a proper major correction where bad decisions and greed was punished. I should have been “taking stupid risks” the entire time and I would have been just fine.
I don’t have an answer to any of your questions and I don’t think many others will either. It seems like one of those things that you look back at with the clarity of hindsight in order to map things out.