• 3 Posts
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Joined 17 days ago
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Cake day: November 25th, 2024

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  • I don’t think so. Probably not. It’s a classical argument when starting a war (Germany/WW1 and Japan/WW2), that’s why I brought it up.

    I.e. if you believe there is a very high risk for war at SOME point, then you probably want to take control of the situation and start the war at a time and place of your choice. If you can destroy 90% of NKs ICMBs (or other kinds of carriers) today, it’s better to start the war now, if the new technology will bring that number down to say 50% by tomorrow.

    The conspiracy theorist in me says that it’s not impossible that the recent coup attempt in SK was somehow related to this kind of thinking. This is how the military tend to reason after all.

    Interesting related video: https://youtu.be/xSnZLWjOkHU
















  • I believe that with the new US administration (and US popular opinion), one could go from good terms to bad over night. I would not trust that the US adhere to article 5 if things become serious for real. Why should they start a nuclear war just because their semi-friend forces itself upon a woke central European country? Things were completely different during the cold War.